Friday, September 5, 2008

Hurricane Watch Again

Looking at the latest model runs for Hurricane Ike, I am not happy. The models are slowly moving westward, pushing the eventual recurvature of the storm well into the Gulf of Mexico. I had planned on calling for my POD to come back from the storage depot so we could begin arrangements, but I am putting that on hold until I have a clearer picture of what's what.

I did a quick Google trying to see if anyone had done analysis for which model has been the most successful over the last five years in predicting landfall from 96 hours out, given the parameters of a storm originating outside the Gulf of Mexico, passing between Florida and the Yucatan and into the Gulf in the months of September and October. Now I know 96 hours out is a large uncertainty, but I'm curious as to which model has done the best job all the same. I'm sure some wonk in the energy analysis section of a major Wall Street fund has this, if not some PhD candidate at a major meteorological school. Upside: many drilling rigs will not have fully restarted production and will be in a position to resecure and evacuate in short order.

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