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Saturday, March 13, 2021

To be honest, an honest appraisal of Covid will take at least twenty years...

 --and that's assuming the historians haven't fully become an arm of the state/establishment.  But that's a concern for another day.  

Is Covid Almost Over? (Powerline.com):

All of that said, the Wuhan bug has in fact increased the number of Americans who have died over the past year. The best index of covid’s impact is, I think, the number of excess deaths over a demographically predicted norm. I have little faith in the CDC, a thoroughly politicized organization, but I assume they can aggregate local death statistics with reasonable accuracy, and this is what they report. The chart shows deaths from all causes. 

Contrary to what some have suggested, covid has actually led to a substantial number of excess deaths compared to a demographic norm over the past year. But what is notable about this chart is that the number of excess deaths is sinking like a stone. What will be interesting to follow over the coming months is whether the total number of deaths declines below the demographic norm.  
Why might this happen? Because most covid victims are people who were likely to die soon in any event, but whose death may have been accelerated by the Wuhan flu. I suspect that most Wuhan victims would have died a few months later, or perhaps a year or two later, regardless of covid.

If that hypothesis is correct, over the next year or two we should see overall mortality falling below the currently predicted norm.

In a completely detached world, I compare this to "Cash-for-Clunkers" where new car sales accelerated, only to be met by a(n unanticipated-by-everyone-but-rational-economists) extended slump in the months following the end of the program. 

Covid is not a hoax, and I have lost friends to this virus.  But never lose sight of the long-term, particularly with the arguments in mind made by Robert Higgs (see previous Mojo Bison Range's entry).

1 comment:

Greetings Greetings follow stargazer said...

How about the number of deaths caused by other diseases or conditions that went untreated due to people being afraid to seek treatment or being turned away since they weren't Covid related or no beds available?